Commentary: US withdrawal from Afghanistan spells end of China’s free ride on international security
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Commentary: US withdrawal from Afghanistan spells end of China'southward complimentary ride on international security
The exit of U.s. troops is inconvenient news for a China growing its commercial and strategic interests overseas, says Christian Le Miere.
Chinese Communist Political party foreign diplomacy chief Yang Jiechi and Cathay's State Councilor Wang Yi speak at the opening session of US-China talks at the Helm Cook Hotel in Anchorage, Alaska on Thursday, Mar 18, 2021. (Photograph: AP/Frederic J Brown)
HONG KONG: With the fall of Kabul to the Taliban, the US in the 21st century has replicated the ignominious exits by the U.k. in the 19th century and the Soviets in the 20th.
That exodus has been accompanied in its chaos by images – like that of a United states C-17 transport aircraft taking off while desperate Afghans attempt to cling to the fuselage – that will live on in the memory of a concerned international community.
In Beijing, the sight of the The states departing from Afghanistan will likely create mixed feelings.
On the one mitt, pictures of US troops leaving in disorder reinforces the narrative of nationalists in Beijing who encounter a strategic rival being humbled with its resolve to arbitrate overseas repudiated.
The removal of several 1000 Us troops from China's western border is also a fillip, creating strategic space for Beijing and removing an obstruction to the further development of Beijing's influence in Central Asia.
WHY U.s. WITHDRAWAL FROM Transitional islamic state of afghanistan CONCERNS Cathay
Merely the U.s. withdrawal is not all good news for the Chinese regime for 2 reasons.
First, the US withdrawal is part of a wider strategic shift in Washington, attempting to end costly campaigns in the Heart East and Transitional islamic state of afghanistan and then that military and geopolitical attention can be focused more intently on the Indo-Pacific, as vice-president Kamala Harris hinted while in Singapore this calendar week, and People's republic of china more than specifically.
In essence, the Usa is bringing to an cease land campaigns in Asia to better concentrate on the maritime domain in the Western Pacific.
This continues a long strategic tradition encapsulated in the 1890s past influential American strategic thinker, Alfred Thayer Mahan, who highlighted the importance of sea power for the potency of nations.
Second, the U.s. withdrawal highlights an uncomfortable new reality for Beijing. For the terminal twoscore years of its remarkable economic development, it has been able to free ride on the United states global security presence.
Washington has guaranteed global public goods, such every bit the freedom of navigation and maritime commerce, while likewise launching overseas interventions to combat the rise of extremist militant groups, all of which are in People's republic of china's strategic interest.
Beijing, meanwhile, has had to expend no blood or treasure to benefit from these interventions, and could focus domestically on apace developing its economy, military and social cohesion, with only brief and limited international security operations.
Since China'southward opening up began in 1979, the twelvemonth the country concluding fought a significant conflict with a strange power, China has only been involved in conflict on a handful of occasions – brief edge clashes with India in 1987 and 2020, and a 1-day skirmish over the Spratly Islands with Vietnam in 1988.
END OF A FREE RIDE
Now, that free ride appears to be coming to an end. The US is withdrawing from Middle East theatres in Afghanistan and Iraq merely as Prc is growing its commercial presence and interests overseas.
Through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing has invested hundreds of billions of dollars in overseas projects to further trade goals, with many investments in some of the world'southward poorest and virtually troubled regions.
Pakistan is a case in betoken. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the most advanced and largest leg of the BRI that has secured United states$65 billion in pledged funding, is already a security headache for Communist china.
A suicide bombing in mid-July killed nine Chinese citizens working on the Dasu dam, part of CPEC. Another suicide bombing final Friday (Aug 20) at the Gwadar Eastward Bay Freeway, some other key CPEC projection, injured a Chinese national.
US SECURITY UMBRELLA CRITICAL FOR CHINA'S OIL Trade
The shift to the Western Pacific is leading to a drawdown of The states forces elsewhere in the world, specially the Middle Due east.
In June, Usa defence secretarial assistant Lloyd Austin told Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman that the United states of america would accelerate the withdrawal of eight Patriot and one Terminal High-Distance Area Defence missile defence batteries and some jet fighters from the region.
Red china has been a net oil importer since 1993. In 2020, five of the summit 10 suppliers of oil to China were Gulf states. Securing this vital source of energy is at present one of Communist china'due south key strategic goals, too as ensuring stability in the oil markets more broadly.
As a upshot, Beijing has steadily been enhancing its security presence in Fundamental Asia and the Eye E. The country'due south get-go overseas military base was inaugurated in Republic of djibouti in 2017, and has since been expanded with an aircraft carrier pier added in April.
Washington expects more bases will follow. The 2022 Usa Department of Defense annual study on Mainland china's military development cited 12 countries in the Centre East, Southeast Asia, Primal Asia and Africa as places the People's Liberation Army is "very likely already considering and planning for additional overseas military logistics facilities".
China WANTS TO PRESERVE 'PEACEFUL Ascension' NARRATIVE
This is not to say that Cathay is gear up to take on a role as global policeman. Beijing remains clear-eyed about the problem with direct foreign intervention non to mention the take chances of over-extension.
After all, the Chinese Communist Party has for years painstakingly attempted to craft a narrative of People's republic of china's peaceful ascension, contrasting it with the disharmonize-laden past few decades of US foreign policy.
Beijing's strategic priorities likewise remain focused on its maritime near-abroad, over Taiwan, the S People's republic of china Sea and the Due east Mainland china Sea.
So China is unlikely to make the same mistakes on military interventions in Afghanistan every bit did the British, Soviets and Americans.
Nevertheless, the The states withdrawal from Kabul, as well every bit Baghdad, and drawdowns elsewhere is creating a very different strategic motion-picture show when viewed from Beijing.
With growing overseas interests and unstable, ungoverned areas nearly China'south western frontier, the calculations for Chinese security interventions may be shifting.
And for the beginning time in modern history, with rapidly developing power project capabilities, Prc is in a position to exist able to consign security across its borders.
The last time China went to war was in 1979, with Vietnam, but four years after the fall of Saigon and the US' equally dramatic withdrawal.
Then, instability on China'southward border with the ascent of the Khmer Rouge in Kingdom of cambodia and Vietnam's invasion of its neighbour inspired an operation to punish Hanoi.
It is nonetheless to exist seen if the Usa withdrawal from Afghanistan will be followed past similar Chinese adventurism. The country's economic interests in that location are few, salvage for a concession on a US$4 billion copper mine in Mes Aynak, the world's second largest, that has been stalled for a decade.
And while Beijing is very bang-up to ensure Afghanistan under the Taliban does not become a preparation ground for extremists or, more chiefly, Uyghur separatist militants, information technology has proactively engaged diplomatically with the Taliban to proceeds assurances of that very fact.
Still, it is now clear for Beijing that in Afghanistan, as elsewhere in the world, it must increasingly shoulder this security burden itself. Its free ride is over.
Christian Le Miere is a foreign policy adviser and the founder and managing director of Arcipel, a strategic advisory business firm based in London.
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Source: https://cnalifestyle.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/china-free-rider-us-security-umbrella-afghanistan-277461
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